Violence is preventable

Does a decrease in traffic lead to a decrease in homicides?

Well, not exactly. Homicides in the city of Miami have decreased over the past few weeks. In fact, this is the first time since 1957 that the city has gone seven weeks without a homicide. Other types of crime are also lower than average, including robberies down 15%, assaults down 35%, and sex offenses down 31%, according to the Miami Herald. The decrease started mid-February, before the lockdown, which gives hope that something other than the lockdown is influencing the change in Miami’s homicide rate.

For other parts of the Miami-Dade County, however, crime rates have stayed consistent or recently gone up. Places like Hialeah and unincorporated Miami-Dade have seen a small increase in homicides.

It is not clear why the city of Miami has seen this decrease in crime while the rest of the county has been experiencing an increase, and multiple variables are likely contributing. It is entirely possible that crimes in Miami are not being reported as accurately as they once were due to the stay at home order. If this is true, we would expect to see a spike in reported crimes the first few weeks after the lockdown is lifted. Additionally, with everyone spending more time at home, perhaps people do not have the same opportunity to engage in violent crimes like assaults and robberies as they once did. Domestic crimes would be more likely, which are often under charged and under reported. People may also be preoccupied with the task of protecting themselves and their families from the virus. If these explanations were fitting, the decrease in crime rates would likely be more consistent throughout the county. Due to the differences seen across Miami-Dade, it is very possible that there is no connection between Miami’s crime rates and the pandemic.

Regardless of the differences in crime rates throughout the county, one thing is for sure: the seven weeks without a homicide in Miami shows violence is preventable. We have to be sure to capitalize on the lowered crime rates in Miami and identify how this can be used as a lesson to prevent crimes in a post-pandemic world. Violence prevention needs to be included in post-pandemic response plans from the beginning, otherwise we revert to picking up the pieces.

We know the reality is that the decreased traffic has not actually led to the decrease in homicides, though Miami traffic can cause some serious road rage. The fundamental research lesson “correlation does not mean causation” reminds us to read new sources with a critical eye as things that appear to be linked may have multiple factors. But history has shown us that the increased unemployment and poverty expected as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic will likely result in an increase in violence. We have the data, our response is essential, and preparation is now.

https://www.miamiherald.com/article242227571.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/miami-no-homicide-seven-weeks/